Tuesday, November 13, 2007

is Nokia taking the heat?

Last week was spectacular for mobile phone fans. It started with an announcement from Google about their open development platform for mobile phones codenamed Android, when everyone was expecting an Google Phone :-) and it has ended with iPhone going on sale in UK and Germany. And I have to stress on sale due late sales reports from T-Mobile and (an unconfirmed one) from O2.

T-Mobile has sold over 10000 iPhones in Germany on the first day and O2 has seen over 8000 iPhone activations on the first day in UK. WOW! Let me repeat that for UK also: WOW! :-)

Very good numbers, still, they're about 6 times less (in units sold per capita) when compared with USA's first day of sales (estimated at about 200000 iPhone units). Numbers crunched with help from Wikipedia.

But how is this related to Google, err... Nokia? Remember the other big Blue from the North? They have a long run target of 40% market share penetration in mobile phones and this year, if you take their last quarter results of 39% they might be able to make it happen. Still...

The 4th quarter is the holiday season and this time is the 1st quarter when iPhone is selling in (about half of) Europe plus USA. Will Apple be able to make a dent in Nokia's market share? It will be worth waiting for the 4th quarter results (especially in the smart phone niche)

If Apple can't do it, Apple+Google will do it :-) Remember Android? It has Moto+LG+Samsung among the founding members, which accounts for about 35.7% in mobile phone market share. Well, that doesn't mean they'll produce Android powered mobile phones overnight plus Samsung is playing at both ends here, since they are part also of Symbian (Sony-Ericsson has no plans yet to join Android, they're too in bed with Nokia on the Symbian board), but this 35.7% has good denting potential.

Lets see...